Hawzah News Agency, Dr. Ruholamin Saeidi, speaking at a scientific conference titled "Examining the Capacity of the Strait of Hormuz Control Strategy and Pressure on the Energy Market" held by the Oil and Energy Think Tank of Imam Sadiq University, stated that restricting traffic in the Strait of Hormuz was never merely a temporary or transient reactive measure.
"This action is, in fact, part of Iran's architecture of power aimed at imposing authority and influencing the energy market—an idea defined in strategic literature as the durability of effect across different periods," Dr. Saeidi asserted.
The Growing Importance of Geopolitical Power
The Iranian scholar further noted that until a few years ago, many analysts were speaking of the end of geography and geopolitics. According to those views, advancements in communications, media, transportation, and cyberspace, coupled with the development of borderless interactions, had stripped geography of its former value.
"However, this absolute view of the 'end of geography' has been seriously challenged in practice by recent events, including the latest conflicts," Saeidi stated. "We must pay attention to a different perspective emerging among analysts. While wealth creation continues through stock markets, capital flows, and information technology, the return of geography's role in global equations appears more definitive than ever."
He pointed to the Russia-Ukraine war and territorial disputes as evidence. "Such events have demonstrated that territory and borders remain central to decision-making. The claim that geography has been eliminated simply does not align with realities on the ground."
The Meaningful Shift in Economic Mechanisms Amid Power Struggles
Dr. Saeidi addressed the economic mechanisms and rules governing global trade, noting that in recent years, major powers had established a regulatory regime over the world economy through frameworks such as free trade laws and institutions like the WTO and the World Bank.
"These regimes, particularly through sanctions and the selective granting of opportunities to certain actors, ultimately shaped the economic trajectories of peripheral nations," he observed. "It is noteworthy that even China, despite its significant growth, remains outside classical power structures like the G7, and efforts to contain Beijing continue."
Turning to the logic of chokepoint leverage, Saeidi emphasized: "By blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran, as a middle power, managed to impact the global economy—an effect that was previously underestimated in enemy calculations."
Years of Sanctions vs. Weeks of Impact
"Iran has endured years under the harshest sanctions, with many players refusing to purchase its oil," Saeidi said. "Yet, within a short period, the economic consequences of Iran's action were tangibly observed in global markets."
He added that the ripple effects extended to sectors such as chemical fertilizers and food supplies. "This demonstrates that the Strait of Hormuz is not merely an oil chokepoint; it is intricately linked to broader chains of global trade and economic security."
Enemy's Miscalculation of Iran's Capability
Saeidi highlighted a critical misjudgment by the opposing side: the belief that Iran's threats regarding the Strait's closure were merely political bluffs with no operational viability.
"Contrary to this narrative, Iran acted in an intelligent and controlled manner, leading to significant price shifts. The prices of oil, gas condensates, and LNG entered an upward trajectory, affecting stock markets and the broader economic climate," he stated.
He noted that the narrative propagated by certain parties—that Iran is fundamentally incapable of acting within its own geography—has now been altered. "Some actors have been forced to forecast even worse scenarios for the energy market. American officials initially claimed the Strait would reopen, but later retreated under various pressures as oil prices continued their ascent."
A Key Factor in Preserving the Islamic Republic's Deterrence
From a strategic standpoint, Saeidi stressed, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains one of Iran's most effective tools. "If utilized correctly and efficiently, it can yield significant benefits for the country. However, we must recognize that not everything is about military tools; legal and contractual factors play a decisive role alongside field effectiveness."
He noted that while many of the world's straits operate under specific agreements and revenue-sharing mechanisms between coastal states, the situation in Hormuz is different. "There is no clear, defined agreement between Iran and Oman in this framework. Consequently, Iran can leverage legal pathways and necessary measures to steer the situation toward a desired outcome."
A Glance at Maritime Conventions
Saeidi referenced relevant international conventions, noting that peacetime navigation is generally examined under two frameworks: the 1958 Convention and the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea. "Iran is a party to the 1958 Convention but not the 1982 Convention. Under the 1958 rules, ships may pass through territorial waters during peacetime provided they cause no harm to the coastal state, and coastal states must not impede this passage."
He pointed out a crucial legal nuance: "In Iran's interpretation, this right of passage applies to signatories of the treaty. Notably, the United States is not a party to the 1958 Convention, though it has customarily accepted many of its passage rules. Nevertheless, in instances where vessels approached coastal waters and warnings were ignored, actions—including the detention of crew members—have been taken."
Saeidi added that the 1982 Convention obligates coastal states not to create obstacles but allows them to collect fees for ensuring navigational security and services rendered—a capacity utilized by countries like Egypt and Turkey. "Iran could operationalize such a basis in the future," he said. "However, these regulations are drafted for peacetime, and this temporal distinction is crucial to understanding Iran's strategy."
Iran's Intelligent Use of the 'Hormuz Card'
The scholar emphasized that in a wartime context, Iran can legally justify control of the Strait based on the denial of passage rights to hostile vessels. "Fortunately, Iran has acted intelligently in this regard, though ill-considered statements by some officials can sometimes lead to a dip in oil prices and reduced leverage."
Saeidi concluded by highlighting two factors working in Iran's favor regarding the Strait: "First, territory and controllability—since the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iranian soil and sovereignty, Iran possesses the capability to control it, and any attempt by American forces to enter this territory would incur severe costs. Second, time operates as an economic variable that ultimately drives prices upward."
"The Strait of Hormuz is a key component of power projection," he stated in closing. "Its use must proceed in coordination with Oman and through necessary legal measures. While it is not the sole factor, the Strait can remain a strategic capacity for Iran even in times of peace."
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